Dec. 27, 2012 - Will the tensions between Iran and Israel trigger World War Three? Many would bet on, and it is certainly an obvious situation that is ripe for military conflict.
But some experts think an argument between China and Japan is a more likely scenario, one that could trigger another world war.
The China-Japan dispute over three seemingly unimportant islands is not getting the attention it deserves. Professor Hugh White of National University in Australia, a defense expert, has made news this week by writing that the disagreement over the islands could cause Japan and China to stumble into full-blown shooting war with each other. He says the United States, and possibly other nations, would probably get sucked into the fight. (More about Prof. White below.)
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Japan says "Senkaku" but China says "Diaoyu."
Both nations say "hands off." |
Both Japan and China are making provocative and self-serving statements for all of the usual reasons: Propaganda, bluster, and national pride. While the Chinese government says that today's "harassment" by Japan "
was meant to escalate the situation," China itself has been doing its best to rathet up the tension as well. Back in August, Chinese citizens were whipped into a frenzy of nationalistic furor over the dispute, rioting in some cities after Japanese activists landed on one of the Senkaku / Diaoyu islands claimed by both Beijing and Tokyo (
see video report). A survey showed that 87 percent of
Chinese citizens have a negative opinion of Japan at the end of 2012, up from 65.9% in 2011.
The disputed islands are called "Senkaku" by Japan and "Diaoyu" by China. The islands are in the East China Sea (
see map), and are also claimed by Taiwan. They are tiny, but are on a strategically important shipping route. In addition, however, the tiny islands sit atop large deposits of hydrocarbon petroleum and natural gas, discovered in the 1970s. Not surprisingly, that's when China and Taiwan began claiming the little islands.
Japan has long claimed that it has controlled the islands from 1895 until surrendered to the U.S. in 1945, at the end of World War II. The U.S. controlled the islands until 1972, when it returned them to Japan’s control. China, however, claims to have discovered the islands in the 14th century and to have controlled them since then.
Today, China is accusing Japan of deliberately trying to escalate the already tense situation:
A Chinese government spokesman Thursday [Dec. 27] said a maritime surveillance plane was harassed by Japanese military aircraft while patrolling the airspace near the disputed Diaoyu islands," reports TwoCircles.com. "Shi Qingfeng, spokesman for the State Oceanic Administration, said Japan's action was meant to escalate the situation and it should bear the consequences, Xinhua reported. Shi said the Chinese plane was conducting a routine patrol in the airspace over the East China Sea about 150 km from the Diaoyu islands. He said the flight route used by the Chinese plane has been used by Chinese surveillance aircraft since 2007. "The Japanese side's disturbance was intended to cause confusion and distort the truth," he said.
For months, both China and Japan have been conducting military exercises near and over the islands, often getting uncomfortably close to each other. God forbid there is an accident or misunderstanding.
Earlier this week, says International Business Times (IBT), "Japanese and Chinese military made contact near the disputed islands. The Y-12, a Chinese maritime surveillance aircraft that was cruising around the disputed territories, was intercepted by several Japanese Air Self-Defense forces."
"Up to eight F-15 jets were scramble by the JASDF (Japan Air Self Defense Force) in the morning of Dec. 13 (02.00 GMT – 11.00 LT),"
reported The Aviationist, "after a Chinese Harbin Y-12 maritime surveillance aircraft skirted one of the disputed islands in the East China Sea." Japan said China was violating its airspace. China, however, considers that to be their own airspace.
PROF. HUGH WHITE, "THIS IS HOW WARS USUALLY START"
"Australian National University professor Hugh White," reports The Japan Daily Press, "also a former Australian defense official, believes that the recent violation of Japanese airspace by Chinese planes and Japan’s election of a new, nationalist-leaning prime minister are sure signs that the two Asian superpowers are heading to war within the next year. In an opinion piece for the Sydney Morning Herald, White writes that the tensions developing now between the two countries are the among the conditions that have led to war many times in history, even when conflict is in no one’s interest."
The U.S. could become embroiled in a China-Japan war because of "America's recent pivot to Asia, which has sought to increase its military presence in various parts of Asia, posing a threat to China," says IBT. "In return, China has pushed back against U.S. pressure. China's formidable military developments, including a new fighter jet and aircraft carrier, has both Japan and the U.S. anxious."
Prof. White, says The Japan Daily Press, "feels that China is attempting to challenge the U.S. and President Barack Obama’s 'pivot to Asia,' itself a response to China’s growing power and territorial claims in the region. He believes that the tit-for-tat dispute over the uninhabited islands in the East China Sea is what inevitably leads to someone opening fire."
THE OBAMA "PIVOT"
By "Obama's pivot," Prof. White was referring to the Obama administration’s strategic “pivot”
from the Middle East to East Asia.
Prof. White wrote that warning in a column that was published by The Sydney Morning Herald on Dec. 26. It's ominous title was "
Caught in a bind that threatens an Asian war nobody wants." The column start with, "THIS is how wars usually start: with a steadily escalating stand-off over something intrinsically worthless. So don't be too surprised if the US and Japan go to war with China next year over the uninhabited rocks that Japan calls the Senkakus and China calls the Diaoyu islands. And don't assume the war would be contained and short."
The vision of a China-Japan shooting war is not some lone, crazy vision held only by Prof. White. Many are worried about it, actually, as indicated by a Dec. 17 article at
CurrentIntelligence.net (with my
emphasis added):
As tensions persist between China and Japan over the disputed islands in the East China Sea, the United States faces the almost impossible task of simultaneously reassuring and constraining its regional allies, while ensuring that it does not escalate its own tensions with Beijing. On one level it is hard to see how China and Japan could become so consumed over a small set of remote islands and it remains unclear how serious the crisis is. Yet, over the past several months, Chinese and Japanese ships have been patrolling the same waters with both laying territorial claims to the area. And, earlier this fall, U.S. Defense Secretary Leon Panetta warned that the escalating tensions and close proximity of Chinese and Japanese vessels could lead to some triggering event and conflict.
Video Below: Professor Hugh White's speech entitled 'Abandon the Alliance? How China's rise will shape Australia's future'." Related articles listed below.
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MOSCOW - Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin on Thursday led growing support from some world leaders for the beleaguered WikiLeaks founder, describing his detention in Britain as 'undemocratic'.
Mr Putin railed against the detention of the 39-year-old Julian Assange, the Australian founder of the website which has been releasing thousands of secret US diplomatic cables as well as Pentagon communiques.
'Why was Mr Assange hidden in jail? Is that democracy? As we say in the village: the pot is calling the kettle black,' Mr Putin said. 'I want to send the ball back to our American colleagues,' Mr Putin added. Full article at The Straits Times...
As for "calling the kettle black," perhaps the black kettle is calling the black kettle black. I know, that's a bit confusing. But then, so is Russian politics. Putin may have a point on the Assange issue, but he's no friend of democracy himself. Just ask Mikhail Gorbachev, who has noted the fragile nature of Russia's political tundra previously, but issued a more ominous advisory this week.
"Former Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev has warned that Russia's undemocratic political landscape is threatening its stability," reports The Associated Press. "Gorbachev said in an article published Friday in Novaya Gazeta newspaper that the lack of political competition, flawed elections, shrinking media freedom and rampant corruption have slowed down Russia's development."
AP quotes Gorbachev as saying, "If we fail to overcome undemocratic trends, all our achievements of the previous years will come under threat."
RELATED:
Putin Slams West for Wikileaks' Assange Arrest ABC World News
Gorbachev on WikiLeaks: Fire Diplomats NewsMax.com
Alex Jones on Coast to Coast Radio: Assange is just a scapegoat Examiner.com
Wikileaks Founder: Bigger Bombshells On The Way PrisonPlanet.com
Will it be war? Let us hope not, but tensions between India and Pakistan seem to be deteriorating by the hour.
The Australian is reporting that India's military "chiefs" are pleading with India's leaders for permission to bomb the "al-Qa'ida-linked Lashkar-e-Toiba terrorist organisation near Lahore" in Pakistan, near the Indian border.
UPDATE: US Secretary of State Condoleeza Rice is now in India to facilitate diplomacy between India and Pakistan. What she can do to ease tensions remains to be seen.
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Italy arrests two jihadists planning attacks on Italian civilians
and "the world hates President Bush." Just ask India's Prime Minister what he thinks of George W. Bush. The Hindu newspaper ran an article on September 27 (well before the Mumbai chaos of last week), in which he unabashedly lavished praise on Mr. Bush.
“People of India deeply love you,” Prime Minister Manmohan Singh told United States President George W. Bush here on Thursday evening.
The actual quote was "deeply, deeply love you." I've heard the audio. Singh continued:
“In the last four and half years that I have been Prime Minister, I have been the recipient of your generosity, your affection, your friendship. It means a lot to me and to the people of India.” As Mr. Bush sat beaming in the glare of television cameras, he heard the visitor saying, “When the history is written, I think it will be recorded that President George W. Bush played a historic role in bringing our two democracies closer to each other.”
Praise for George W. Bush - from a foreign leader??? This must sound like science fiction to the average American liberal, but the fact is that Bush is not the evil dictator that the lying liars have worked so hard to portray.
Singh noted that President Bush made a major contribution to peace in Southern Asia.
“For 34 years, India has suffered from a nuclear apartheid. We have not been able to trade in nuclear material, nuclear reactions, and nuclear raw materials. And when this restrictive regime ends, I think a great deal of credit will go to President Bush. And, for this I am very grateful to you, Mr. President.” Full Article at The Hindu...
Wow. A major world leader saying that he is "grateful" to George W. Bush. Imagine.
RELATED LOVE NOTES:
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South Asia Investor Review: Manmohan Says India Loves Bush
Bill Clinton Praises Bush : Next Stop Lauderdale
Howard Dean fails again. Nagin praises Bush. Scott Allan's World
Praise for George Bush's leadership skills Education The Guardian
Bush's record in Africa receives well-deserved praise - Opinion ...
Praise for President Bush in German Paper - Atlantic Review ...
PajamaHadin » Blog Archive » ABC surprised by praise for Bush
Open Letter Of Praise For George W Bush
Putin criticizes NATO but has praise for Bush - International ...
Well-Deserved Praise for Bush's Africa Record - Examiner.com
Grudging Praise for Bush on Environment
praise for bush from danish P.M. « The Homesick American…
Rock star Bono praises Bush for AIDS plans
RUSSIA MAY BE ABOUT TO USE A U.S. CITIZEN AS A PAWN IN A DIPLOMATIC CHESS GAME. Russia, desperate to justify its brutal invasion of tiny Georgia, is trumping up charges against American citizen Michael Lee White of Texas. The New York Times and other news outlets are reporting this as of late yesterday, BUT THERE IS A BIZARRE TWIST TO THE STORY.
First, a summary from the New York Times (followed by the weird twist):
A senior Russian defense official, Col. Gen. Anatoly Nogovitsyn, said at a news conference in 
Moscow on Thursday that Russian forces had found a United States passport in a ruined building near Tskhinvali, the capital of South Ossetia. The position, he said, had been occupied by Georgian Interior Ministry forces.... [Russian] General Nogovitsyn said the passport was in the name of Michael Lee White of Texas, but gave no information on whether Russians believed that he was a member of the United States military. The United States Embassy in Georgia told The Associated Press that it had no information on the matter. (Source: New York Times...)
The bizarre twist:
Last night, not sleeping well, I got up and listened to the radio for brief time. A woman called in to Coast to Coast AM, a national radio show, and said she was the mother of Michael Lee White. First, a the summary from Coast to Coast's web site:
Maida in Austin, TX told George her son's missing passport that was found in Georgia by Russian defense officials. The passport, belonging to Texas resident Michael Lee White, is being used by Vladimir Putin to implicate the United States in the Georgia conflict.... According to Maida, her son's passport was stolen in Kazakhstan in 2005. He was traveling with a new passport and has gone missing in China, she said. Maida believes her son may be under arrest and fears he may be forced to confess to something he did not do. (Source: Coast to Coast AM
What Coast to Coast's web site omitted, from my notes taken as Maida spoke is this:
Maida's son, Michael Lee White, has been teaching English as a foreign language in China for about two years. The U.S. Department of State phoned her home earlier this week to warn them about the Russian-Chinese scheme to set him up, but too late. Michael had already returned to China, to teach in the new semester, just two or three days before the State Department phone call.
Think about this analogy: Police arrest a guy, plant drugs in his pocket, and claim they arrested him for carrying drugs. That seems to be what Russia is doing with a U.S. passport lost or stolen in Kazakhstan in 2005.
Michael had been in Texas to help mother Maida care for his elderly father, who recently suffered a stroke. The reason Michael may be missing and under arrest in China, Maida said on the air, is that - in her estimation - the Chinese are cooperating with Russia to set up the U.S. as the culprit in the Russia-Georgia war. Maida noted that there was a recent meeting of officials from Russia, China and Kazakhstan and that they cooked up the scheme to use Michael's lost 2005 passport for the set up. The Chinese, said Maida, may try to extract a false confession from Michael, even though, she insists, he could not have been involved while he was caring for his ailing father in Texas.
Russia is obviously trying to score public relations points with this tactic. Let us pray for the safety of Michael Lee White, in the hands of the Chinese who are acting in coordination with Russia.
RELATED:
Georgia 'overrun' by Russian troops as full-scale ground invasion begins - Mail Online (UK)
Russia facing battle backlash - National Post, Canada
Putin links war in Georgia to GOP's ambitions - The Plain Dealer
Russia isolated over Georgia - elEconomista.es, Spain
Russian leaders act intoxicated by oil revenue - PennEnergy, TX
Understanding Putin and the conflict in the Caucasus - OpEdNews
Putin warns Europe not to support US - United Press International
Bush correct to rattle saber - Santa Maria (CA) Times
Putin blames West for manipulating news about Georgia conflict - Hindu, India
Writer Al Giordano suggests we ask Latin America, first. Giordano, writing in the current issue of counterpunch.org, suggests that Mr. Clinton is nowhere near as popular outside of the United States as he and his supporters would like to think he is. Giordano is the founder of Narco News and has lived in and reported from Latin America for the past decade.
"Global distrust and resentment toward the United States did not begin with George W. Bush; Clinton, as president, fueled it, too. The true legacy of the first Clinton White House around the world precludes the former president's illusory claim that he can somehow be the magician that would "restore America's standing." While Bill Clinton remains popular inside the United States, and perhaps among white elites in Europe, he would be an albatross, not a talisman, around the neck of future US policy in the Middle East and Africa. But that's not all. His Latin America policies are remembered particularly bitterly in this hemisphere." FULL ARTICLE...