Monday, June 4, 2012

Walker Ahead of Barrett In Late Polling, But Wisconsin GOP Could Lose State Senate Seats

June 4, 2012 - The New York Times makes note today of two polls that were released last weekend that "suggest that Gov. Scott Walker of Wisconsin....remains the clear favorite to win Tuesday’s recall election."  Tomorrow is the big day in America's Dairyland.

The NY Times story, by Nate Silver, added that they "have not officially released a forecast for the race," but quickly added that "Although the contest is fairly close, polls of gubernatorial races are ordinarily quite reliable in the late stages of a race."

The two polls that the NYT cited are from Real Clear Politics, which showed Walker ahead of Democrat challenger Tom Barrett by 6.7 points, and Public Policy Polling, which said was Walker ahead by 3 points.

Democrats in Wisconsin who read Silver's column today will likely lose sleep tonight: 

"With that said, recall elections are rare events, and it is plausible that the true margin of error in polls of recall elections is intrinsically higher than in regular contests. The results are worth watching, but it would be a true upset if Mr. Barrett were to prevail."

Then again, Republicans have some reason to toss and turn in bed tonight, as well: A report in The Weekly Standard today says that even if Walker survives the recall vote, the Republicans could lose some seats in the Senate. TWS says that "internal Republican polling shows there's a very good chance that the Wisconsin GOP will lose control of the state senate on the same day."

But Republicans will likely lose much less sleep than the Democrats. Why? Because even if Republicans do lose a few Senate seats tomorrow, says TWS, "they will likely take it back on November 6." Here's the real nightmare for Dems in the Badger State: "For Democrats to have any hope of undoing Scott Walker's reforms," TWS notes, "they'll need to win both houses of the legislature and the governor's seat."

That seems unlikely. Wisconsin is already sick and tired of the recall effort, and many Wisconsinites just might decide to punish the Democrats for acting like petulant children for over a year now.

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